In June, the 20-ecovillage-strong Ecovillage Resilience Community of Practice turned a new leaf in the project, as they entered the phase which will focus on visions and pathways for the future. They will explore how to navigate toward the desired reality, despite the challenges we face.
After several months of collectively diving deep into the thresholds of potential concern, taking the time to understand the impacts of climate change and polycrisis, the Ecovillage Resilience project participants welcomed the sense of relief and hope as attention turns to agency and capacity.
Future scenarios are a tool used to explore how decisions taken in the present might shape future outcomes. As a methodology, the scenarios you create are not meant to ‘predict’ the future. Rather, they can help groups to articulate their aspirations for the future, and collectively imagine alternative futures that are desirable as well as possible.
This can be done through a structured process called the ‘Three Horizons Framework.’
Here is a short video introducing the framework. Each ecovillage will host a local community workshop to imagine possible futures and to discuss the decisions and actions that would need to be taken to move in that direction. It’s also an opportunity to apply the understanding of change drivers and feedbacks in the communities to envision more resilient and positive futures that are still grounded in the reality of climate change.
We are always delighted to share the resources with the wider network and invite you to check out:
💫 Wayfinder 24: Developing Plausible Scenarios (description of scenarios as a tool for resilience assessment)
💫 Futures thinking & scenario planning with Tanja Hichert (15 minute video)
💫 Using the three horizons approach to explore pathways towards positive futures for agricultural landscapes with rich biodiversity (journal article and case study example)